NFL Week 3 picks against the spread: Tua Tagovailoa keeps playing like an MVP
Read Vic’s latest NFL picks against the spread.
Yeah, we’re doing something real special here.
We’re 1-9 on our best bets this season, and I hope you are going against me. Because that means you have been blessed, and I wish blessings on all of our readers.
Rams coach Sean McVay, for no logical reason whatsoever, called for a field goal as time expired last week to lose by seven points and cover the spread. That was after we lost bets on the Eagles by a half-point, the Giants by 2.5 points and the Chargers lost in overtime.
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Then, on Monday night, the Browns were winning (and covering) entering the fourth quarter and their defense held the Steelers to minus-7 yards the rest of the way. Cleveland, of course, lost the game due to a fumble return.
That’s enough whining. Time to get back to winning. (It’s OK if you laughed — I chuckled writing it.)
Last week: 6-9-1 against the spread, 0-5 on best bets.
Season record: 11-20-1 ATS, 1-9 on best bets.
All odds are from BetMGM and are locked when the pick was made. Click here for live odds.
The Giants, one of our best bets last week, didn’t show up for a half and then came back to beat the Cardinals but not cover the spread. Daniel Jones caught fire, and while he faces a much tougher test — and will be without Saquon Barkley — I think he does enough to keep this one respectable. And I thought Brian Daboll was a good coach before these last two games. The 49ers could be on autopilot for a couple of weeks (they host the Cardinals next week) before a big playoff rematch against the Cowboys. Plus, they could be without WR Brandon Aiyuk, whose average target has been a team-high 13.6 yards downfield this season. Aiyuk is expected to be a game-time decision.
The pick: Giants (they owe me)
GO DEEPER
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The Browns were another best bet gone tragically wrong. But we still have faith in Myles Garrett’s crew. The Browns defense has allowed one touchdown in 29 drives (3.4 percent), the lowest rate in the NFL, and no unit has gotten off the field faster than Cleveland. The Titans are not very good, but be warned: Mike Vrabel likes kicking field goals late when trailing by more than three.
The pick: Browns (they owe me)
We knew the 2-0 Falcons could run the ball and their defensive line was greatly improved, but Desmond Ridder, smooth operator in the clutch? We had no idea. Ridder leads the NFL with 15.1 yards per attempt in the fourth quarter and half of his 12 fourth-quarter attempts have gone for first downs, tied for the second-best rate in the league. Ridder has averaged 4.5 yards per attempt in the first three quarters (30th). The Lions are banged up and coming off two roller-coaster games. They don’t win by 5 points or more.
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The pick: Falcons
If Desmond Ridder can remain clutch in the fourth quarter, the Falcons can remain undefeated. (Kevin C. Cox / Getty Images)This is a tough one as the Saints are 2-0 despite offensive struggles and don’t get Alvin Kamara back from suspension for another week. Derek Carr is fifth in the NFL with 7.7 yards per attempt and he’s doing a lot of it on his own. Just 31.1 percent of Carr’s passing yards have come after the catch, the lowest percentage in the NFL. That’s down from 42.8 percent last season with the Raiders. The Packers also have a lot of injuries, but have the edge on defense. And the home fans. Oh, and Matt LaFleur is 12-3 ATS after a loss.
The pick: Packers
One thing we got right was Tua Tagovailoa and the Dolphins going to the Super Bowl. I know, I know, I am pathetic. Tua is now the odds-on favorite for MVP at plus-500 (Patrick Mahomes is at plus-650 and my pick Justin Herbert is eighth at plus-1600.) Last week, Tagovailoa averaged the fourth quickest time to throw (2.08 seconds) of any QB in a game since 2020. Tagovailoa is the only QB with a time to throw under 2.20 seconds to average more than 8.0 air yards per attempt in a game over that same span. Meanwhile, Russell Wilson and the Broncos are still out of sorts offensively — they’re averaging 45.1 seconds before first-down plays (second slowest) and now face Vic Fangio, the defensive coordinator that Sean Payton wanted in Denver.
The pick: Dolphins
GO DEEPER
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The Chargers have scored 58 points and not turned the ball over this season, yet they are 0-2. I am back on them again because the 0-2 Vikings can’t run the ball (30th in yards/rush, 31st in rush EPA) or stop the run. The Chargers rank 10th in defensive rush EPA and have allowed 0.9 yards before contact per rush, eighth best in the NFL. Did we mention the Vikings’ secondary stinks? If it’s true that the Chargers are still stuck in some post-Jaguars-loss funk, then funk me again.
The pick: Chargers (they owe me)
Last week, I told you how Tua owned Bill Belichick and then I picked the Patriots. L. We’re going full George Costanza again. Belichick actually cracks a smile going against the Jets’ Zach Wilson (4-0, with Wilson 54-of-106 for 693 yards and seven interceptions against just two touchdowns) — and we’re taking the Jets. Just clearly a better team everywhere else. The Patriots don’t have any difference-makers and are getting credit for a close Week 1 loss to the Eagles, when the Eagles didn’t play well.
The pick: Jets
The Bills had no problems with the Raiders last week, shutting down Josh Jacobs and throwing 9-yard passes all day. The Bills defense should also feast this week, as the Commanders’ offensive line is not very good. On the other side of the ball, the Commanders’ defensive line is much better than the Raiders’ — which means Josh Allen will use his legs after giving them the week off. Washington has no business being 2-0, and there is some correction coming in the next two weeks (Bills, Eagles).
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The pick: Bills
GO DEEPER
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In the multiverse, the Texans were our only bad “best bet” pick last week. I am 0-2 with them this season and I would like to say goodbye and never trust them again. But I do think the Jaguars are overrated. They shouldn’t have covered in Week 1 and then they never led last week at home against a Chiefs team that is struggling offensively. Left tackle Laremy Tunsil returned to practice on Wednesday, and he will help keep C.J. Stroud clean enough to put up, say, 20 points to keep within the distance.
The pick: Texans (they owe me)
This number is going down even though Colts quarterback Anthony Richardson remains in the concussion protocol. What, everybody loves Gardner Minshew against the Ravens defense? The Colts run defense, though impressive in the first two games, is supposed to inspire me? Lamar Jackson was hitting on deep passes and looked a lot more comfortable in the new offense than he did in the opener, and that’s good enough for me.
The pick: Ravens
Yeah, Bryce Young looks a little lost out there right now. The Panthers will be able to run the ball against the Seahawks, but Seattle is coming off a big win over the Lions where Geno Smith gave a nice speech to lead the troops. This would be a bad loss after something like that, and I like the Seahawks despite the line being a little trappy.
The pick: Seahawks
The Chiefs could easily be 2-0 despite some injuries, a holdout and a lot of dropped passes. Mahomes had to complete passes to 12 different receivers in the win over the Jaguars, as Travis Kelce is still getting healthy. It does feel like this is the breakout week, as the Bears defense sometimes forgets to rush the quarterback or cover everyone. I was excited about the Bears covering when Justin Fields blamed the coaches for making him a robot and vowed to be himself and run like wild Sunday. But then he took it all back because someone told him to.
The pick: Chiefs
Justin Fields was easier to get behind when he was calling out the Bears’ coaching, but not so much after he backtracked. (Mike Ehrmann / Getty Images)The Cardinals have shocked the world by being competitive thus far — a competitive 0-2 — and I don’t know if the 2-0 Cowboys will be excited about this matchup. But it doesn’t matter. The Cowboys are so much more talented and should control the line of scrimmage on offense and defense. You’ll be siding with the dreaded public on this one (who the heck wants to back Joshua Dobbs?) but … even a bored lion feasts on a plucky, awkward zebra by the end of four 15-minute chase sessions.
The pick: Cowboys
The nationally televised rematch of that dreadful Christmas Eve game that nobody asked for. No one is buying the Steelers’ win over the Browns, as all the money is on a team that stayed in the woods in West Virginia for a week to prepare for the Bills and lost by 28. Maybe it’s because the Steelers are flying cross country on a short week. Or maybe it’s because people agree with me on Kenny Pickett. Pickett had a -12.5 completion percentage below expectation (lowest in Week 2). The only two close to that bad were Fields and Zach Wilson at -12.0 percent.
The pick: Raiders
Apparently, Baker Mayfield is good now. While under pressure last week, Mayfield completed 14 of 17 passes for 223 yards and a TD — tied for the most passing yards under pressure in a game over the last four seasons. The Bears pressured Mayfield 17 times without recording a sack. Now, going back to my animal analogies, if a blind squirrel finds a nut each of his first two trips looking for one, he is starving that third time. Sorry, big-time regression game for Mayfield against a 2-0 Eagles team that hasn’t played all that well yet.
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The pick: Eagles
This number started dropping because Joe Burrow is questionable with a calf injury, and the Rams are getting a lot of love for being 1-1 when some people (cough) thought they might be in the running for Caleb Williams. The Bengals have too many offensive weapons to lose to the Rams at home even if Jake Browning is at quarterback, though the reports are that Burrow is feeling better. The Bengals defense will somehow contain Puka Nacua while they hurry Matthew Stafford into a couple of interceptions. I don’t think this one is close either way. Regression Monday.
The pick: Bengals
GO DEEPER
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Best bets: All chalk. Ravens over Colts, Browns over Titans, Dolphins over Broncos, Eagles over Buccaneers, Bengals over Rams.
Upset special (spread of at least 3 points): Texans over Jaguars. Boom. (1-1 this season.)
Survivor Pool: Give us the Ravens. (We have already used the Commanders and Cowboys.)
— TruMedia research courtesy of NFL editor Jason Starrett.
(Top photo of Tua Tagovailoa: Maddie Meyer / Getty Images)
“The Football 100,” the definitive ranking of the NFL’s best 100 players of all time, goes on sale this fall. Preorder it here.
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